Indeed, oldpoliticsstudent. It depends on your word list what the three top vowels are. Many frequency distributions favour I over O, which might give the edge to RAISE. This was analysed a while ago by computer, using the actual words used by the game (a US list, hence the FAVOR row). It marginally preferred ROATE, and gave an average result of c 3.5 guesses. More impressively, the worst result was 5 with RAISE.
I see Susie Dent says her average is about 3. I’d happily have a daily wager with her, 3 or less she wins, 4 or more she loses, minimum 100 trials 😉 Or is she more accurate than a computer simulation, albeit with limitations, which has the word list of possible answers? I’d like to know.
For those who are interested:
https://medium.com/@tglaiel/the-mathematically-optimal-first-guess-in-wordle-cbcb03c19b0a