Re: The German Tank Problem and wondering whether it actually works in real life situations, this is an extract from an email I sent to one of my brothers some 10 years ago after I'd tested it for myself...
"I just tried it using a random number generator, where I put in a minimum of 1 and max. of 255 and generated 9 random no.'s., and, using the formula, I got 255.67! That's an accuracy of 99.74%. In the real life example during the war, the mathematicians were virtually spot on, as opposed to the Intelligence service estimates that were way off. In a more recent example, a guy posted a youtube video asking people to send him their Apple iphone serial no.'s and, using the formula, estimated that 9.1 million iphones had been sold to Sept. 2008"
I know it's a bit naughty posting this in the Prize blog, but it is Monday so I think most queries will have been dealt with.